October’s Trick or Treat Market

October has a certain mystique on Wall Street. Maybe it’s the cooler air, maybe it’s the long shadow of 1987 and 2008 - or maybe it’s just that the market loves a good scare this time of year.

And with everything else we have been dealing with in October, right on cue, the first Hindenburg Omen of 2025 has flashed.

For those unfamiliar, that’s a technical warning that appears when market internals start misbehaving - new highs and new lows rising together, something called the McClellan Oscillator turning negative, and prices still cruising above the 50-day average.

Translation: things look fine on the surface, but underneath, a few bolts are loose.

Now, one signal alone could be nothing more than a market burp after a bad burrito. But two within 30 days - that’s when seasoned investors start paying attention.

For this October, the backdrop is already shaky: tariff talk, government shutdown, uncertain Fed policy, renewed bank stress, and valuations stretched tighter than a 1999 Halloween Costume! It wouldn’t take much to spark a pullback.

That said, I’m not in the prediction business - I’m in the preparation business. That’s why I follow a disciplined, rules-based strategy that adjusts exposure when risk levels rise and redeploys when conditions improve. So when the market hands out tricks, we don’t end up with empty candy buckets.

And as October rolls on, enjoy the festivities - but don’t ignore the creaks in the market floorboards. Sometimes the scariest thing isn’t the ghost in the chart…it’s ignoring the warning before it shows up.

Here’s to more treats than tricks - in portfolios and pumpkin buckets alike. Happy Halloween!

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John Piershale, CFP®, AEP®

Fee-Only and Fiduciary Advisor

This article is for educational purposes only and is not legal or tax advice. Please consult an attorney or tax advisor regarding your personal situation. John Piershale Wealth Management, LLC is an Investment Adviser registered with the State of IL and in other jurisdictions where exempt from registration. All views, expressions, and opinions included in this communication are subject to change. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument or investment advisory services. Any information provided has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy or the completeness of any description of securities, markets or developments mentioned. The information contained herein is intended to be used for educational purposes only and is not exhaustive. Diversification and/or any strategy that may be discussed does not guarantee against investment losses but are intended to help manage risk and return. If applicable, historical discussions and/or opinions are not predictive of future events. The content is presented in good faith and has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. The content is not intended to be legal, tax or financial advice. Please consult a legal, tax or financial professional for information specific to your individual situation.