October has a certain mystique on Wall Street. Maybe it’s the cooler air, maybe it’s the long shadow of 1987 and 2008 - or maybe it’s just that the market loves a good scare this time of year.
And with everything else we have been dealing with in October, right on cue, the first Hindenburg Omen of 2025 has flashed.
For those unfamiliar, that’s a technical warning that appears when market internals start misbehaving - new highs and new lows rising together, something called the McClellan Oscillator turning negative, and prices still cruising above the 50-day average.
Translation: things look fine on the surface, but underneath, a few bolts are loose.
Now, one signal alone could be nothing more than a market burp after a bad burrito. But two within 30 days - that’s when seasoned investors start paying attention.
For this October, the backdrop is already shaky: tariff talk, government shutdown, uncertain Fed policy, renewed bank stress, and valuations stretched tighter than a 1999 Halloween Costume! It wouldn’t take much to spark a pullback.
That said, I’m not in the prediction business - I’m in the preparation business. That’s why I follow a disciplined, rules-based strategy that adjusts exposure when risk levels rise and redeploys when conditions improve. So when the market hands out tricks, we don’t end up with empty candy buckets.
And as October rolls on, enjoy the festivities - but don’t ignore the creaks in the market floorboards. Sometimes the scariest thing isn’t the ghost in the chart…it’s ignoring the warning before it shows up.
Here’s to more treats than tricks - in portfolios and pumpkin buckets alike. Happy Halloween!