April 1, 2025

Q1 2025 Market Review: The Rally, the Reversal, and What It Means for You

The first quarter of 2025 did not lack excitement. Stocks roared out of the gate in January and started to run into the shrubs. After strong gains in January and early February, the quarter reversed course in March, dragged down by inflation worries, soft earnings, and a spike in tariff uncertainty. By the end of the quarter, U.S. stocks gave up much of their early momentum.

📉 What Moved the Markets

Tariff turbulence – The new administration proposed tariffs on key trading partners, rattling global markets and raising recession concerns. Inflation proves sticky – Core inflation crept above 2%, staying above the Fed’s target. Earnings slouched – About 70 S&P 500 companies reported negative earnings. That's more than usual for this stage of the cycle. Gold rallied and the fear trade was real: gold surged 19.6%, its best quarter since 1986.

📊 Q1 Returns (as of 3/31/25):

Index

Q1 Return

S&P 500: –4.59%

Nasdaq: –10.42%

Dow Jones: –1.28%

Gold: +19.63%

Oil: –0.53%

10-Yr Treasury: 4.24% (down from 4.57%)

💼 What It Means for Retirement Investors

Don’t overreact to one quarter. Q1 was a reminder of why diversification matters.
Growth wasn’t universal. Big oil and gold were key standouts.
Bond yields slipped, helping cushion portfolios with fixed income exposure.
If volatility shook you, it may be time to revisit how your investment mix aligns with your risk comfort.

🔭 Looking Ahead

Will the new tariffs stick, or soften?
Will inflation cool or stay stubborn?
Could the Fed cut rates sooner than expected?
Will we see another rally or a deeper pullback?

‍

👉 Are you looking for a fee-only advisor to work with? Book your free discovery call and let’s start the conversation.

‍

John Piershale, CFP®, AEP®

Fee-Only and Fiduciary Advisor

NAPFA-Registered Financial Advisor

‍

This article is for educational purposes only and is not legal or tax advice. Please consult an attorney or tax advisor regarding your personal situation. John Piershale Wealth Management, LLC is an Investment Adviser registered with the State of IL and in other jurisdictions where exempt from registration. All views, expressions, and opinions included in this communication are subject to change. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument or investment advisory services. Any information provided has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy or the completeness of any description of securities, markets or developments mentioned. The information contained herein is intended to be used for educational purposes only and is not exhaustive. Diversification and/or any strategy that may be discussed does not guarantee against investment losses but are intended to help manage risk and return. If applicable, historical discussions and/or opinions are not predictive of future events. The content is presented in good faith and has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. The content is not intended to be legal, tax or financial advice. Please consult a legal, tax or financial professional for information specific to your individual situation.

‍